A Sectoral Analysis of Barbados’ GDP Business Cycle

Parution :

Journal of Eastern Caribbean Studies, Vol. 32, No 1, March 2007, pp.21-51

Auteur(s) :

Roland Craigwell et Alain Maurin

This paper has two main objectives. Firstly , to establish and characterise a reference cycle (based on real output) for Barbados over the quarterly period 1974 - 2003, using the Bry and Boschan algorthim. Secondly, to link this aggregate output cycle to the cycles of of the individual sectors that comprise real output. The overriding conclusions are that the cycles of tourism and wholesale and retail closely resembles that of the aggregate business cycle, while the non-sugar agriculture and fishing cycle is counter acyclical.