Documents de travail CREDDI

The Determinants of Economic Growth in the Countries of the Organization of the Eastern

Patrice Borda, Nlandu Mamingi

Although the countries of the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) have registered some appreciable degrees of success concerning poverty reduction, education or schooling achievement, and economic growth, in many instances, much needs to be done in terms of poverty reduction, high external debt and overall development. The present paper re-examines the issue of the determinants of economic growth in the countries of the OECS in the period 1980-2011. Specifically, the paper answers two questions. What are the determinants of economic growth in the countries of the OECS? What are their short-run and long-run impacts? To this end, the paper uses the cointegration autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach at the country level to draw conclusions concerning each country individually and the region as a whole. Overall, it is found that external debt, natural increase rate, and private consumption are the main drags to economic growth in the region in the short and long runs, and trade openness positively impacts economic Document de travail n°1 - The Determinants of Economic Growth in The Countries of the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States - 4 - Centre de Recherche en Economie et en Droit du Développement Insulaire ■ Juil 2014 growth. For any significant determinant, the long-run impact is in general far bigger than the short-run impact. Of note, natural disasters have negative impacts on economic growth, but only in a handful of countries. The negative impact of budget deficit shows up in one country with a complete data set. These results have policy implications.

La modélisation économique quantitative dans les régions d’outre-mer : une revue de littérature

Sébastien Mathouraparsad, Alain Maurin

Cet article propose une revue de littérature sur les enseignements à tirer des pratiques de l’économie quantitative dans les régions d’outre-mer (ROM) en termes de politique économique. La diversité des approches a su montrer au fil du temps les avantages comparés de chacune d’entre elles, et c’est finalement sous le prisme de la complémentarité qu’il faut les apprécier plus que celui de la substituabilité. Car il apparaît que, selon les problématiques abordées, certaines approches soient plus appropriées. Mais après des décennies de pratique, des défis restent à relever, notamment celui des carences des bases de données statistiques pour affiner la qualité de la mesure et celui des aspects comportementaux qui peuvent perturber l’équilibre dans ces petits territoires constitués d’un nombre réduit d’acteurs. Mots-clés : Politique économique, Modélisation économique, Régions d’outre-merClassification JEL : R11, O54, O56, O11, C0

Protectionnisme et croissance en Outremer : Une analyse à l’aide de CloDyn, un MEGC pour les DOM appliqué à la Guadeloupe

Sébastien Mathouraparsad

Dans cet article, nous évaluons les conséquences potentielles de la suppression du différentiel de taxation de l’octroi de mer et de mesures alternatives à l’aide de CloDyn, un modèle d’équilibre général calculable en dynamique séquentielle, qui tient compte des différentes spécificités des économies domiennes. Taxe emblématique de la fiscalité outre-mer, l’octroi de mer s’applique de façon inéquitable sur les produits locaux et importés. Sa suppression pourrait entrainer un ralentissement économique mais réduirait les inégalités sociales Mots-clés : modèle EGC dynamique, petite économie insulaire, DOM, protectionnisme Classification JEL : D33, D58, E27, F17, I32, O15, O54 Abstract In this paper, we evaluate the potential consequences of the abolition of the octroi de mer and its alternatives by using CloDyn, a computable general equilibrium model in sequential dynamic which take into account the different specificities of the French overseas economies. The octroi de mer is applied unfairly on local and imported products. Its removal could cause an economic slowdown but would reduce the social inequalities of the society. Key words: Dynamic CGE model, trade liberalisation, small island economy, protectionnism. JEL classification: D33, D58, E27, F17, I32, O15, O54me.

On the persistence of unemployment in small open economies

Patrice Borda, Nlandu Mamingi

Abstract The paper attempts to measure the persistence of labour market distortions in general and unemployment in particular to structural shocks in the context of two small open economies (Barbados with a fixed exchange rate regime and Trinidad and Tobago with a flexible exchange rate regime). Using a rational expectations model and performing parameterizations and simulations for the two countries, the paper finds that external and domestic shocks are the main sources of labour market fluctuations in the flexible exchange rate countries. In the fixed exchange rate countries, labour market fluctuations are mainly due to supply shocks. The latter result is similar to those supply responses observed in industrialized countries. Document de travail - On the persistence of unemployment in small open economies Centre de Recherche en Economie et en Droit du Développement Insulaire ■ Keywords: Unemployment persistence, labour market, hysteresis, insideroutsider heory, rational expectations. JEL Classification Codes: J51, E24, C15

Monetary Policy in The Caribbean : Surprises Versus News Shocks

Patrice Borda, Allan Wright, Rumile Arana

We explore empirically and theoretically a small open economy model where agents form anticipations about the future based on monetary information. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to monetary news shocks from those due to temporary errors (surprise shocks). Using a simple DSGE model and assuming that labour market is controlled by a trade union’s, we firstly show that..... Next, we..... JEL Codes: E32, E52, C58. Keywords: Monetary Policy, Anticipated and Unanticipated shocks, News shocks, New Keynesian model.

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