Documentation

The Determinants of Economic Growth in the Countries of the Organization of the Eastern

Patrice Borda, Nlandu Mamingi

Although the countries of the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) have registered some appreciable degrees of success concerning poverty reduction, education or schooling achievement, and economic growth, in many instances, much needs to be done in terms of poverty reduction, high external debt and overall development. The present paper re-examines the issue of the determinants of economic growth in the countries of the OECS in the period 1980-2011. Specifically, the paper answers two questions. What are the determinants of economic growth in the countries of the OECS? What are their short-run and long-run impacts? To this end, the paper uses the cointegration autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach at the country level to draw conclusions concerning each country individually and the region as a whole. Overall, it is found that external debt, natural increase rate, and private consumption are the main drags to economic growth in the region in the short and long runs, and trade openness positively impacts economic Document de travail n°1 - The Determinants of Economic Growth in The Countries of the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States - 4 - Centre de Recherche en Economie et en Droit du Développement Insulaire ■ Juil 2014 growth. For any significant determinant, the long-run impact is in general far bigger than the short-run impact. Of note, natural disasters have negative impacts on economic growth, but only in a handful of countries. The negative impact of budget deficit shows up in one country with a complete data set. These results have policy implications.

La modélisation économique quantitative dans les régions d’outre-mer : une revue de littérature

Sébastien Mathouraparsad, Alain Maurin

Cet article propose une revue de littérature sur les enseignements à tirer des pratiques de l’économie quantitative dans les régions d’outre-mer (ROM) en termes de politique économique. La diversité des approches a su montrer au fil du temps les avantages comparés de chacune d’entre elles, et c’est finalement sous le prisme de la complémentarité qu’il faut les apprécier plus que celui de la substituabilité. Car il apparaît que, selon les problématiques abordées, certaines approches soient plus appropriées. Mais après des décennies de pratique, des défis restent à relever, notamment celui des carences des bases de données statistiques pour affiner la qualité de la mesure et celui des aspects comportementaux qui peuvent perturber l’équilibre dans ces petits territoires constitués d’un nombre réduit d’acteurs. Mots-clés : Politique économique, Modélisation économique, Régions d’outre-merClassification JEL : R11, O54, O56, O11, C0

Protectionnisme et croissance en Outremer : Une analyse à l’aide de CloDyn, un MEGC pour les DOM appliqué à la Guadeloupe

Sébastien Mathouraparsad

Dans cet article, nous évaluons les conséquences potentielles de la suppression du différentiel de taxation de l’octroi de mer et de mesures alternatives à l’aide de CloDyn, un modèle d’équilibre général calculable en dynamique séquentielle, qui tient compte des différentes spécificités des économies domiennes. Taxe emblématique de la fiscalité outre-mer, l’octroi de mer s’applique de façon inéquitable sur les produits locaux et importés. Sa suppression pourrait entrainer un ralentissement économique mais réduirait les inégalités sociales Mots-clés : modèle EGC dynamique, petite économie insulaire, DOM, protectionnisme Classification JEL : D33, D58, E27, F17, I32, O15, O54 Abstract In this paper, we evaluate the potential consequences of the abolition of the octroi de mer and its alternatives by using CloDyn, a computable general equilibrium model in sequential dynamic which take into account the different specificities of the French overseas economies. The octroi de mer is applied unfairly on local and imported products. Its removal could cause an economic slowdown but would reduce the social inequalities of the society. Key words: Dynamic CGE model, trade liberalisation, small island economy, protectionnism. JEL classification: D33, D58, E27, F17, I32, O15, O54me.

On the persistence of unemployment in small open economies

Patrice Borda, Nlandu Mamingi

Abstract The paper attempts to measure the persistence of labour market distortions in general and unemployment in particular to structural shocks in the context of two small open economies (Barbados with a fixed exchange rate regime and Trinidad and Tobago with a flexible exchange rate regime). Using a rational expectations model and performing parameterizations and simulations for the two countries, the paper finds that external and domestic shocks are the main sources of labour market fluctuations in the flexible exchange rate countries. In the fixed exchange rate countries, labour market fluctuations are mainly due to supply shocks. The latter result is similar to those supply responses observed in industrialized countries. Document de travail - On the persistence of unemployment in small open economies Centre de Recherche en Economie et en Droit du Développement Insulaire ■ Keywords: Unemployment persistence, labour market, hysteresis, insideroutsider heory, rational expectations. JEL Classification Codes: J51, E24, C15

Monetary Policy in The Caribbean : Surprises Versus News Shocks

Patrice Borda, Allan Wright, Rumile Arana

We explore empirically and theoretically a small open economy model where agents form anticipations about the future based on monetary information. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to monetary news shocks from those due to temporary errors (surprise shocks). Using a simple DSGE model and assuming that labour market is controlled by a trade union’s, we firstly show that..... Next, we..... JEL Codes: E32, E52, C58. Keywords: Monetary Policy, Anticipated and Unanticipated shocks, News shocks, New Keynesian model.

Macroeconomic Fluctuations Under Natural Disaster Shocks in Central America and The Caribbean

Patrice Borda, Allan Wright

This paper examines the role of disaster shock in a one-sector, representative agent Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE). Firstly, we estimate a Panel Vector Autoregresive (VAR) model for output, investment, trade balance, consumptionandcountryspreadtocapturetheeconomiceffectsofoutput,country risk and exogenous natural disaster shocks. We determine the empirical dynamic responses of 10 countries of Caribbean and 7 countries in Central America. Secondly, by taking into account rare events and trend shocks this paper also provides a baseline framework of the dynamic interactions between the macroeconomic effects of rare events and financial friction for two specific countries: Barbados and Belize. Similar findings between empirical and general framework show that disaster shocks in Central America and the Caribbean only have a significative impact in the short run regional business cycle. The findings show that Caribbean countries are better prepared for natural disaster shocks Keywords: Panel Var, Business Cycles, DSGE, Small Open Economy. JEL Classification Codes: E32, F41.

Le secteur culturel et créatif en Guadeloupe : Entre défis et opportunités L’exemple de la filière musicale

Alain Maurin

Résumé indisponible

Une analyse comparative des économies des DOM à travers les matrices de comptabilité sociale

Sébastien MATHOURAPARSAD, Bernard DECALUWE

Les matrices de comptabilité sociale (MCS) décrivent, dans un cadre macroéconomique cohérent, la structure des quatre économies insulaires. Elles intègrent un tableau des entrées intermédiaires pour une vingtaine de secteurs, une balance des paiements et les principaux flux économiques entre les DOM, les régions avoisinantes (Caraïbe pour les DFA et Océan indien pour La Réunion), l’Union européenne (y compris la France métropolitaine), le Reste du Monde, l’Etat et les collectivités locales. Cette présentation permet une lecture immédiate des principaux agrégats macroéconomiques et leurs relations mutuelles. Les MCS montrent une certaine similarité entre les Antilles, quelques différences avec la Guyane et une distinction plus marquée de l’économie réunionnaise. Nous présentons d’une part la méthodologie de construction des MCS et d’autre part une analyse comparative des économies domiennes au travers des comptes économiques. Mots-clés : économie régionale, matrice de comptabilité sociale, Dom. Classification JEL : E20, O18, R13 Abstract Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) describes, in a consistent macroeconomic framework, the structure of the Four French overseas regions. They include the Input-Output Table and key Economic flows between the overseas departments, the neighboring regions (Caribbean for the Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Guyana and Indian Ocean for the Reunion Island), European Union (including the metropole) Rest of the World. The MCS show a certain similarity between the Caribbean island, some differences with Guyana and more differences with the Reunion Island. Keywords: Regional economy, social accounting matrix, french overseas department. JEL classification : E20, O18, R13

HYSTERESIS DU CHOMAGE DANS LE BASSIN CARAIBE : QUELQUES ENSEIGNEMENTS A PARTIR DE MODELES NON LINEAIRES

Roland Craigwell, Sébastin Mathouraparsad et Alain Maurin

Dans les pays du bassin Caraïbe comme dans plusieurs autres régions du monde, le chômage est devenu depuis le début des années 1980 une des dimensions majeures des dysfonctionnements économiques qui affectent les sociétés. Avec des niveaux qui sont supérieurs à 15% et qui atteignent souvent des valeurs allant jusqu’à 20% voire 30% durant les décennies 1980, 1990 et 2000, les taux observés du chômage ont connu une augmentation rapide et ensuite un maintien à des niveaux élevés au cours de ces trente dernières années.Cet article propose un état des lieux du phénomène du chômage élevé et persistant dans les pays de la Caraïbe. Dans un premier temps il met en évidence les caractéristiques spécifiques du chômage caribéen vis à vis de celui observé dans d’autres pays industrialisés et en voie de développement. Dans un deuxième temps il synthétise les principales idées qui ont été proposées pour expliquer le problème d’hystérésis du chômage et discute de leur adéquation dans le cas des pays considérés. Dans un troisième temps, il propose un examen empirique de l’hypothèse d’hystérèse en privilégiant notamment le cadre d’analyse des modèles à seuils et des processus à non linéarités dans la moyenne.Mots clés : Hystérèse ; Persistance du chômage ; Tests de racines unitaires ; Modèles Non-LinéairesAbstract : In the Caribbean Basin, as in many other parts of the world, unemployment, with rates between 15 and 30 percent, has become, since the early 1980s, one of the major problems affecting these societies. This article reviews the phenomenon of high and persistent unemployment in the economies of the Caribbean. Firstly, it highlights the specific characteristics of Caribbean unemployment contrasting with those observed in industrialized and developed nations. Secondly, it summarizes the main ideas that have been proposed to explain the problem of unemployment hysteresis and discusses their appropriateness in the case of the countries under consideration. Finally, it provides an empirical examination of the hypothesis of hysteresis that uses the framework of threshold models and processes with nonlinearities in the mean.Keywords : Unemployment persistence, Unit root test, Non-linear model

Are Caribbean Countries Diverging or Converging ? Evidence from Spatial Econometrics

Roland CRAIGWELL et Alain MAURIN

This paper utilises the concepts of convergence to examine whether or not disparities in per capita GDP of selected CARICOM countries have diminished. Results from descriptive and spatial statistical methods show no evidence of correlation between the spatial distribution of the level and growth of per capita GDP. Also various econometric tests of beta-convergence and sigma-convergence, based on panel spatial econometrics proved that, since the early 1980s, there is an absence of convergence for CARICOM countries. However, the phenomenon of club convergence within the OECS group, which are linked in a quasi-monetary union framework, was found.

Aérodromes locaux et développement des territoires

Paul Rosele-Chim

En France Métropolitaine, les aérodromes locaux jouent un rôle particulièrement important en terme de services de transport dans les localités ayant des besoins. Toutefois, dans la dynamique active des entreprises dans ce domaine et compte tenu des demande concurrente, sur une période de trente ans, les aérodromes locaux ont été confrontés à la crise...

Stylised facts of the business cycle in Barbados

Alin Maurin et Roland Craigwell

This paper examines the characteristics of the business cycle in Barbados for the quarterly period 1974-2003 using several adaptive and non-adaptive filters. The business cycle is described and explained and a prediction of the dynamic linkages among principal macroeconomics variables is made.

Structural Shocks and Labor Market Dynamics in a Small Open-Economy : Theory and Evidence

BORDA Patrice et MAMINGY

The aim of this paper is twofold : First, to measure the persistence of labour market distortions in general and unemployment in particular, to structural shocks in the context of small open economies ; and second, to analyze the links that might exist between shocks. Using a rational expectations model and assuming that markets are controlled by insiders, we examine the link between structural shocks, labour market variables and exchange rate by theoretically and numerically solving a dynamic stochastic model. We perform parametrization and simulation for Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago.

Is a Monetary Union in CARICOM desirable

Manioc Olivier et Montauban Jean Gabriel

This book is an up-to-date, authoritative and comprehensive analysis of the key issues and challenges facing regional currency area projects in the context of financial globalization. The authors focus on several central issues that emerged during the experiences of the 1990s and 2000s : exchange rate regimes and optimal currency area theory ; exchange rate regimes in emerging countries, international capital markets and regional currency areas ; EMU and the euro ; exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America ; dollarization and the coordination of macroeconomic policies in the presence of regional currency areas.

Modeling The Economic Impact of Changes in Tourism for the French Overseas Department : The Guadeloupean Case

Sébastien Mathouraparsad, Alain Maurin et Jean-Gabriel Montauban

Using the Guadeloupean case, this article contributes to the issues raised in the literature on Caribbean studies by focusing on and answering a certain number of questions related to the modelling of the variables which drive tourism industry. Thus, on the one hand, it enriches quantitatively and qualitatively the corpus used in several similar empirical studies. Since the tourism sector is the core of many economies, it becomes increasingly imperative to identify the different related macroeconomic problems that may arise. To name a few, forecast of tourist arrivals, analysis of different scenarios for macroeconomic evolution and sector impact of a change in the demand for tourism. On the other hand, it provides examples of the different types of economic analysis needed by decision makers at the local as well as national levels. Unquestionably, recently the budgets and investment check incentives set up in Guadeloupe by the government have showed a favourable bias towards the tourism sector, which is considered as a “magic cure” for economic activity and employment generations. In return to their commitment for providing the much needed finances, the authorities are now requiring a certain level of expertise to deal accurately with the determination of the direct and indirect effects of tourism on economic activity, particularly on the creation of wealth and employment.

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